With Republicans reclaiming the House, we expect stepped up attacks on all Biden policies, including oil & gas regulations and real or perceived limitations to increasing U.S. production
Private lands dominate U.S. oil & natural gas production, the math simply doesn't work for production growth from Federal lands only to solve U.S. or world supply crunches
Even if total U.S. oil production isn't at all-time highs, production from federal lands is
Perhaps surprisingly, coal production on federal lands has increased under the Biden administration
Data Over Narratives
Last week, the EIA reported U.S. oil production of 12.1 million barrels of oil per day, down 1 million barrels per day from peak U.S. production in early 2020.
Effectively 100% of the U.S. oil production drop can be attributed to a loss of production from private lands, which is down 1 million barrels per day from a similar peak timeframe.
Oil production from federal onshore lands is at or near all-time highs, although the second derivative of growth has slowed and there appears to be a short-term topping pattern.
Federal onshore leases just finished a 70-month streak of outgrowing private onshore leases.
The Appalachia region (Marcellus, Utica) dominates U.S. natural gas production. With limited federal lands in these areas, private lands drive a higher percentage of gas production.
The amount of discussion surrouding production from federal lands is excessive relative to actual U.S. production from federal lands.
Perhaps because oil & gas data is easier to follow, or because mainstream media has focused on the SPR and high oil prices in 2022, but U.S. coal production on federal lands has increased since Biden took office.
Higher natural gas prices are the primary culprit here, but despite Biden's policy goals, coal production from federal lands in 2022 has grown at the highest rate in nearly 20 years.